COVID’s Global Death Toll May Be 3 Times Official Numbers

FRIDAY, March 11, 2022 (HealthDay News) — If you think the global death toll from the pandemic is already too high, a new study suggests the number of excess deaths could be three times greater than official estimates. The official death toll from COVID-19 from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021, was 5.9 million. However, the new analysis estimates that more than three times as many excess deaths, at 18.2 million, could have occurred in the same period. Excess mortality represents the difference between the number of reported deaths from all causes and the number expected based on past trends. It is a vital indicator of the confirmed death toll from a pandemic.

According to the report, by region, South Asia had the most excess deaths (5.3 million), followed by North Africa and the Middle East (1.7 million), and Eastern Europe (1.4 million).

excess deaths

By country, the most significant number of excess deaths occurred in India (4.1 million), the USA (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million), Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000), Indonesia (736,000), and Pakistan (664,000). . These seven countries accounted for more than half of the world’s excess deaths over the 24-month study period.

The results showed that the excess death rate was 120 deaths per 100,000 population worldwide, but 21 countries had different mortality rates above 300 deaths per 100,000 population.

The highest rates were in the Andes of Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 population), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000), and southern Africa sub-Saharan Africa (309 deaths per 100,000). ).

Several places outside of these regions had similarly high rates, including Lebanon, Armenia, Tunisia, Libya, many areas of Italy, and several states in the southern United States.

The results of the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess mortality during the pandemic were published on March 10 in Lancet.

The researchers noted that the large gap between excess deaths and official data might result from the underdiagnosis of COVID-19 due to lack of testing and problems reporting deaths.

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